“WHAT GOES UP …” We can all finish that sentence. We have just encountered — and perhaps will continue to encounter — a decline in the stock market. No prognosticator knows exactly how much of a decline there will be, what stocks will be affected more than others and how long the decline will last. We just know it is inevitable. We also know no one knows the right time to get in and out of the market. Timing it is extremely difficult.
Over a long period, the stock market has shown it is a good place to be — for the long term. History tells us losses of 5 to 9.99 percent for the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index are more frequent than you might think but don’t normally become major long-term declines. Since World War II, the index experienced 56 losses of the magnitude mentioned above, with an average decline of 7 percent. Those downturns lasted approximately one month. In these situations, the market regained its losses in about 45 days.
Losses of 10 percent or more occurred 22 times, and the average loss was 13.8 percent. In these instances it took considerably longer to regain losses; the average was 264 days. While that is a long time for investors to look at their screens and sweat out how long it will take to get their accounts back up to their high point, in the long-term investment cycle it is just a blip.
Each decline or correction, based upon the amount of loss, has its own root problems. The issues for 2018 include tariffs, slowing global growth and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The question is: Can the stock market overcome these issues as it has overcome other issues through the years?
Trying not to panic is easier said than done but is the right way to approach things. Your investments should follow your philosophy and your timeline. If you are risk averse, don’t look for high-flying stocks that offer high reward but also high risk. If you are not looking at a long timeline for your investments, be sure you invest accordingly. Those investments should probably be more conservative and not subject to higher ups and downs.
These declines are always a good reminder to take the time to rebalance your portfolio annually. This will ensure your investments are allocated in the manner you and your investment advisor prefer. It is worth the effort.
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