Airbus released its forecast for the next 20 years of air travel, with an estimated 34,170 passenger aircraft required to cope with airline growth and aircraft replacement.

The manufacturer’s Global Market Forecast 2017–2036 reported the world’s passenger aircraft fleet of about 100 seats is set to more than double in the next 20 years to more than 40,000 planes with traffic growing at 4.4 percent per year.

“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years. Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market,” said John Leahy, chief operating officer, customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft. “Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”

A combination of an increasing number of first-time travelers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalization, new routes and evolving airline business models are some of the driving forces for more than 34,000 passenger and freight aircraft, worth a total of $5.3 trillion.

More than 1 million pilots and maintenance engineers will be needed to cover the increase in commercial fleets. The growth is expected to be highest in emerging markets like Asia-Pacific, set to take more than 40 percent of new deliveries, followed by Europe, 20 percent, and North America, 16 percent. The single-aisle aircraft sector is set to account for 70 percent new units with nearly 25,000 aircraft required.