A month after the Costa Concordia foundered off the western coast of Italy, crews still work feverishly to account for the missing, contain and offload fuel and other environmental threats, and deal with the enormous wreck. As they work, business and travel analysts ponder the short- and long-term effects on the cruise industry. Meanwhile,  the subjects of their scrutiny — cruise lines which generate billions of dollars in revenue each year — scramble to address the disaster internally and with the public.

Clearly, the greatest impact will be felt by Carnival Corporation and PLC, which owns Costa Cruises and nine other brands, including Cunard, Holland America, Seabourn and Princess, and comprises 49 percent of the worldwide cruise ship industry. The stock price closed at 30.53 on Feb. 13, one month after the grounding, down from a pre-incident closing of 35.14 on Jan. 12. and SEC filings show the company anticipates the impact from loss of use of the ship, deductibles and other “incident-related costs” to equate to a $155–175 million reduction in profits.  A percent decline in bookings “in the mid-teens” compared with the previous year was noted, but that drop is believed to be short-lived. However, with two lawsuits already filed and more sure to come, forecasters predict that the financial fallout will certainly last into 2013.

Other cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean, while not eager to share actual numbers, acknowledge some drop in bookings. Traditionally, the period following the holidays, known as the Wave Season, sees a swell of reservations wherein more than a third of annual passenger trips are sold, and often the best fares are offered at this time. While changing passenger demographics and more global destinations have smoothed out that bump over the last few years, and sales and special deals crop up year-round, the timing of the Concordia’s grounding could not have been worse.

Unlike other types of vacations, most cruises are booked through travel agencies, so a poll taken by Travel Guard (a travel insurance provider) of travel agents might provide the clearest indicator of public response to the Concordia disaster.  Only 7 percent of respondents felt that fewer people would cruise, while 46 percent believed the incident would not “drastically” affect the number of bookings in 2012. Furthermore, 47 percent felt avid cruisers would continue to cruise, but many acknowledged that noncruisers would, at least initially,  strongly consider other types of vacations.

Throughout the industry, the consensus seems to be that bookings may drop off briefly but will recover. In fact, some suggest that savvy travelers who had planned to schedule a cruise may now be holding back only to see whether fares will be dropped to entice a reluctant public back on board.

In the meantime, cruise lines are making efforts to communicate their safety standards and conducting internal audits of protocols and procedures. Cruise Lines International Association, North America’s largest cruise industry organization, launched a Cruise Industry Operational Safety Review to include internal reviews by its 26 member lines, consultation with external experts and collaboration with the International Maritime Organization to implement any needed regulatory changes.

Many lines have expanded the information provided on their websites regarding safety and crew training. CEOs sent out letters to the lines’ repeat cruisers, reiterating their commitment to safety, providing background information on their safety officers and outlining the national and international requirements under which they operate. Micky Arison, Carnival Corp.’s chairman and CEO, also communicated this information to travel agents,  acknowledging their position “on the front line of this issue” and thanking them for their continued support.

Just as the salvaging of the Costa Concordia will take months, its full effects across the industry and, particularly, for Carnival, won’t be known for some time, likely long after vacationers concerns have dissipated and they decide to sail on.